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Happy election doomscrolling day!
Don't worry - today's post is not a deep dive on anything onchain.
This is the one day every 4 years we've earned the right to not get any work done and enjoy all the craziness on our timelines.
On Sunday, a friend asked how I'm thinking about the elections in regards to crypto/tech.
The only answer I had was..."uhhh I think people on Twitter are saying markets go up if Trump wins". Okay but why? And is that even true?
Well, I don't know. And to be honest, I don't care. Analyzing macro and politics is not my strong suit.
And I've been in this space for 5 years now. If the price drops a little, it doesn't effect me.
However! I did take some time yesterday to educate myself a bit. If you're looking for some pointers on what to look out for crypto wise with elections today, I've included a few basic thoughts below.
Let's dive in.
In the Spotlight
From my research, the key takeaway was that this election has been totally different for crypto because it was actually a topic of importance for candidates.
Note: candidates also refers to the House and Senate seats.
In my opinion, Coinbase went a bit overboard in convincing its readers of crypto's importance for the election in this State of Crypto report. For example, just because 52 million people own digital assets, I don't believe crypto is that high of a priority for most of them when it comes to voting.
However, as we all know from 2020, elections can get very close! And in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, it can literally come down to the last 10 thousand.
And that's where I believe the key takeaway is: even if 20% of those crypto owners in the swing states care about what's happening with their investments, then crypto policy might make a bigger difference than we think. It's just the way the electoral system is set up.
Pretty much every politician running was asked for their stance on digital assets, blockchain technologies, and stablecoin regulation this cycle.
And of course, this forced the news outlets to also bring the topic up. It's still foreign to them (watch the CBS video below) but they pretty much had no choice but to discuss crypto in some form or fashion.
Crypto holders could determine the US election - CBS
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Many presidential candidates went on All-In and other tech podcasts this cycle. Heck, Trump even did an interview with Fraokh 😂
It was clear candidates running for office were looking to sway crypto voters. Though the promises made don't mean much until they're actually implemented, the point still stands that crypto was a topic of importance.
So, that got me thinking...how did things change so dramatically this past year?
Fairshake Super PAC
For those of you that don't live in the US, political action committees (PAC) are organizations focused on specific issues that use capital they've raised to influence election outcomes. They either help support a candidate on their side and/or publicly reject a candidate against their stance.
Many of you have probably seen funding announcements for Fairshake PAC in the past year from industry leaders such as Chris Dixon and Brian Armstrong.
Today we’re contributing over $23m in additional funds to Fairshake and its affiliated PACs for the 2026 midterm election cycle.
No matter what happens on Election Day we are taking a long-term approach to our policy efforts.
Contributing to Fairshake is just one important…
No matter what happens on Election Day we are taking a long-term approach to our policy efforts.
Contributing to Fairshake is just one important…
Since 2022, Fairshake has been deploying capital to pro-crypto candidates in both parties. Their mission statement on the website is this:
Fairshake supports candidates committed to securing the United States as the home to innovators building the next generation of the internet.
Providing blockchain innovators the ability to develop their networks under aa clearer regulatory and legal framework is vital if the broader open blockchain economy is to grow to its full potential here in the United States.
I've known about Fairshake for a while now but never bothered to look at the numbers. Yesterday, as I was perusing through Open Secrets, I was shocked to find out how much money Fairshake has raised.
They're #6 on the list with close to $300 million 🤯
It's worth noting that Fairshake (independent) also works with affiliate PACs such as Defend American Jobs (conservative) and Protect Progress (liberal) so that capital raised is the total across all of them.
Here are the top 15 donors. Names you and I are pretty much all familiar with:
And here's how much money has been spent on the '24 Federal election cycle:
Fairshake: $40,698,591
Defend American Jobs: $57,8830,662
Protect Progress: $34,633,121
Total: $133,162,374
With all this being said, my realization yesterday was that most people are simply focusing on Trump vs Kamala in regards to crypto policy. But it's more interesting to see where Fairshake has been making efforts with key Senate and House races...on both sides!
To be clear, I'm not vouching for being a single issue voter on crypto. Rather, I'm just trying to share which candidates are getting the most money for being pro-crypto candidates. These are the folks that will determine what crypto policy will look like in the next 2 years.
Pushing Pro-Crypto Candidates
This Politico article goes through all of the people that received money from Fairshake in detail. Below, I wanted to discuss a few candidates that had the biggest spotlight on them.
Senate
Ohio
Bernie Moreno (Republican) of Ohio for Senate received $40.1 million to beat Sherrod Brown (Democrat)
Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (Democrat) of Arizona received $10 million to beat Kari Lake (Republican)
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Democrat) of Michigan received $10 million to beat Mike Rodgers (Rep)
House
In terms of the House, Fairshake focused on ~50 key races all across the country.
“We are seeing a broad bipartisan consensus behind ‘crypto and blockchain as a critical component of the future economy....We will continue to deploy our resources in support of leaders on both sides of the aisle and in both houses who are committed to getting things done and working with the industry to pass responsible regulation that drives innovation, creates jobs, and sustains America’s global leadership.”
Fairshake announced it would spend $25 million on TV ad campaigns to support 18 house candidates from both parties.
At times, it can be easy for most people to simply say "it's better for [party] to win for crypto". And to a certain extent, that thinking makes sense because of how important it is to have majority in Congress.
But, it's worth noting that the most important crypto policy to go through recently, FIT 21 (U.S. Financial Innovation for the 21st century) passed the House with bipartisan support, including 71 Democrat votes.
The key takeaway here is that crypto policy is a long term game. Regardless of which way the election goes, the most important task for our industry is to get as many pro-crypto candidates in office as soon as possible, regardless of party.
Every crypto friendly candidate that gets elected today can not only help drive meaningful change in the next two years (till midterms), but also set the tone of where future candidates stand on the topic of digital assets.
That's all for today's post, I'll see you on the other side!
In case you're looking for more resources to dive into as you wait for the results, check out some of the links below :)
See you all on Friday.
- YB
Additional Resources
Crypto has become a key political issue - a16z crypto
A increasing number of Republican and Democrat policymakers and politicians are speaking positively about crypto ahead of the U.S. elections.
Voices Onchain - a16z crypto
Voices Onchain (VO) highlights creators who have turned to blockchain technology to unlock new creative possibilities.
Silicon Valley, the New Lobbying Monster
From Coinbase to OpenAI, the tech sector is pouring millions into super PACS that intimidate politicians into supporting its agenda. Charles Duhigg reports.
Despite having the highest rate of crypto adoption of any developed nation, the U.S. still lacks a functioning crypto regulatory regime.
But as a new administration takes over, there is plenty that U.S. government departments and agencies can do in the absence of new legislation…
But as a new administration takes over, there is plenty that U.S. government departments and agencies can do in the absence of new legislation…
We get the U.S. election results in 6 days, and no matter how you slice it, it will be the most pro-crypto congress ever.
But we're not slowing down post-election.
Today I'm announcing that @coinbase has committed another $25M to support Fairshake PAC, which they will use…
But we're not slowing down post-election.
Today I'm announcing that @coinbase has committed another $25M to support Fairshake PAC, which they will use…
Balance of Power: 2024 Election
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Democratic Party wins the Presidency, and secures control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Kalshi - Election Forecast
Live odds from the only legal election market.
some light reading if you need a break from doomscrolling and Polymarket refreshing. - Fairshake super PAC and affiliates deployed $133m to pro-crypto candidates on both sides - Senate races to watch out for: Ohio (!!), Arizona, Michigan, & CA - More money spent on pushing pro-crypto for Democrats - Coinbase, a16z, and Ripple are biggest donors Regardless of who wins, crypto policy is a long term game. Goal over time is to get as many crypto friendly candidates in office. Helps with regulation only for the next 2 years till midterms, but also sets the tone for future candidates' relationships w crypto. https://terminallyonchain.xyz/elections
bros been shippppin
Why exclamation on Ohio?
Mentioned in article, but ~1/3rd ($40m) of the funds deployed by Fairshake was used just on Ohio senate race
Well done on Ohio, massive win to kick Sherrod out of office